Tuesday, 13 May 2008

So Good To Be Back Home

Days 10/11 - DFW to LHR to York


Finally back in York after a long, long journey home, but coming home is always worth the wait.

My memories of my first storm chase trip to the US? Some memorable storms and close encounters, amazing lightning shows and scary-sized hail.

Best Chase? The Kinsley supercell in Kansas takes the biscuit for me (Day 6, Chase 4). A long, long chase - but our decision to go for this beast rather than stick around in the OK panhandle waiting for the New Mexico storms was a good call.

Biggest Regret? Saturday's storms were big tornado producers but we didn't get to see one. The terrain and conditions made it really tough to view anything. But the loss of life in Picher, OK shows how deadly these things can be, so my thoughts are with the families of those that lost loved-ones. Storm chasing is a hobby, but with a serious side - anything we see that could pose a threat to life should always be reported to the relevant authorities so that warnings for these kind of communities can be made that could help reduce the number of casualties.

Would I go again? Definitely, but probably not for a couple of years. It feels too good to be safely back at home with the family again to consider going back out at the moment!

A final word of thanks to all those who've followed the Blog, and the feedback and comments that have been made. A special mention to Keith, for the mapping updates each chase - quality workmanship!

Check out Keith's great trip summary mapping here:
http://maps.google.co.uk/maps/ms?hl=en&ie=UTF8&msa=0&msid=116346435926735759882.00044c6abf6553978ade1&ll=35.442771,-98.327637&spn=11.840008,18.149414&z=6

Sunday, 11 May 2008

Day 9 Heading back toward DFW

The outlook for today is locked-down, with high pressure covering most of the plains.

Yesterday's storms continue to rumble on into the south-east USA, doubtless with more injuries or even fatalities to come. The disappointment of yesterday's near miss has changed into sadness for those that lost their lives, and a certain sense of relief that we didn't stumble into a life-threatening situation ourselves in that dangerous area south of Perryville.

Today we're running south-west on the 30 toward Dallas, probably staying at Greenville overnight before getting the rental back to Avis by 2pm tomorrow. Thence onward to DFW airport for our flight at 5.30pm. At least Greenville isn't in a Dry County...

Day 8 Chase 5 Summary

Damage Path, Hail, Tornadic Supercells

Mt. Pleasant, TX to Hope, AR to Malvern, AR to Conway, AR to Perry, AR to Perryville, AR to Bryant, AR to Malvern, AR (overnight)


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On a day when 21 people were killed by a large area of storms and tornadoes, it seems somewhat churlish to bemoan an opportunity missed on our chase.

We were chasing around central/western Arkansas, where the terrain was not conducive to easy and/or safe chasing. The roads are winding, and there are a lot of trees and hills. Our worse nightmare would be to crest a hill and see a large tornado coming toward us on he other side.

We came into Arkansas in the mid morning, and stopped at Hope for an assessment on data. The day was very hazy, and very hot. Guidance from SPC was that tornado warnings were in place over most of Arkansas, eastern OK, and NE Texas.

The problem for us (and all the other chasers) is that as mentioned above, this is poor chase territory, and these supercell storms were going to be running ESE at around 50 miles per hour, so keeping up with them would be tricky. Our best bet would be to locate to the SE of the path of one of these storms when they fired and hope to catch something as the storm ripped through.

The area north of us at Hope was very hilly, so we went further up the I-30 toward Little Rock so we had more options to cut north. Storms were now firing in East OK, and were looking very intense. They were also coming into north AR, hence our desire to have an option to head north. We stopped at Malvern for another check on data.

We decided to try and get up to Russelville area by cutting north over the hills. We would hopefully get up there before these big storms in Eastern OK crossed over into AR. Sadly GPS gave us the runaround, and we ended up back on the I-30 having missed our route straight north. We continued up I-30 and onto I-430, onto the I-40 headed north-west to try and intercept the storm directly west of Conway with a view to cutting back south-west to get to the tornadic supercell line coming into AR.





By now there were 10 Tornado warned storms, with the line coming in from the west all having tornado warnings on them.


At Conway, we pulled over to see what the cell coming in from the west was up to. There was some lightning associated with it, but it wasn't springing into life as we had hoped. We pushed west and then south to Perry, back into the hilly stuff, with the intention of cutting back south-west to intercept the tornado-warned supercells coming from the west.


As we were coming round the I-40 toward Morniton, it became obvious that things were erupting over the hills south of Perry and Perryville - right across our planned route. We checked it out on GRLevel3 - and were informed that this supercell was chucking down 3" hail, easily enough to bust a windscreen and leave us stuck in remote country. In Perry we spotted a closed gas station with a roof over the pump area, so we pulled in to ride out the hail before pushing onward. This storm was also exhibiting rotation, with about 4 meso areas around its south eastern flank, and a pronounced hook signature forming. We really needed to get south so we could have a look at this thing where all the action was occurring.


The north-west area of the storm rolled over us, with rain then hail. To our surprise and dismay the hail was fairly minor - only 1/2" at best - we could have easily punched this and carried on. As it was, we had lost a good 20 minutes - which was to prove decisive.


We carried on past Williams Junction, onward to Paron. At this point the inevitable happened - the storm became tornado warned with a confirmed funnel on the ground west of Hurricane Lake - some 20 miles to our south-east. The roads were winding, so we couldn't risk going any faster. We then came across large amounts of debris on the road north of Benton - large tree branches and foliage which we obviously had to slow down for. This may have just been straight line wind damage, but having check later on the tornado's path, we were in the right area for where it first hit the ground - but we were 20 minutes too late.


If we'd have punched the hail core at Perry then we may have been in the game for chasing this tornado, but by now it was through Alexander into the Shannon Hills, east of which the river would have blocked all further chasing, and the whole system was moving ESE at 50mph. According to reports, it carried on ESE all the way to Stuttgart AR - a track of some 70 miles.



With daylight fading, we decided to head back SW on the 30 to try and catch the supercells coming in from OK. But it just wasn't going to be our day - the cells on the northern end of the line that would have headed into a chasable area were fading, with the main action far to the south-west, near the Texas border, which was an hour and a half away. These cells were still dropping funnels, and there were multiple reports of tornadoes that evening and overnight.


Looks like this was out last chase day - very frustrating, considering what was going on today, but we came pretty close!

Saturday, 10 May 2008

Day 8 Chase 5 Planning - Update

Storms are firing quite widely around our location, but we're headed into Arkansas toward Little Rock up the I-30 into prime tornado country for later today. More later...

Day 8 Chase 5 Planning

A very large risk area today. SPC's take on things is to bring an upper low down into the northern plains and eject eastward across Mississippi. This has the effect of drawing up a lot of moisture from the south (believe me, its here in NE TX already), which provides the energy for storms to fire. Looks like there will also be a mid-level wind max that will whip across the plains eastward, which will provide the wind shear from lower to upper levels. This is the forcing for these storms to rotate, which helps create supercells ripe for tornadic potential.

Tornadoes could form anywhere from NE TX, SE OK into central and S. Arkansas from early afternoon onward, with this risk moving east as time goes on. Looks like were not talking brief EF0 touchdowns, rather some long-lived big outbreaks. Tasty...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html

Day 7 Summary

Pratt, KS to Wichita, KS to Tulsa, OK to Mt. Pleasant, TX


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Well a day that held a marginal chance of chasing en route to our relocation target of NE Texas turned out to be just a relocation day. Some big cells fired way up north in Nebraska, but chasing those from Kansas would have ruled out a big potential chase tomorrow further south and east. An isolated cell also went up south-west of Dallas, but we had no meaningful daylight left to go after it. It may cross us at 2am though given its current vectoring!

So we're now overnighting in Mt. Pleasant, Texas, waiting on news of a potentially very potent day tomorrow. Supercells, large hail and tornadoes are all on the cards over a large area. Our plan is to check the latest data in the morning and decide if we need to fine tune our position in the morning. This may involve chasing into Arkansas, or even Louisiana. Hopefully we can stay in Texas though - the chasing is not so good further east due to rolling terrain and more forests, which will restrict visibility, and a road network that is not as trellised as the good chasing country in OK and KS.

On a personal note, its been the most sober birthday I can remember for some time! Thanks for all the happy birthday messages, and for all the other great comments on the blog - great to know someone out there is reading it!

More tomorrow, hopefully before we set off, otherwise an update tomorrow night, as I doubt we'll have much net access on the road again...

Friday, 9 May 2008

Day 7 Chase Planning

Day 7 Chase 5 Planning

What looked like being a leisurely drive over toward east Kansas for a repositioning for Saturday’s potential has evolved into something more, as potential exists in our repositioning area in the far east of OK into the Ozarks. We’ll see what pops up during the day. Tomorrow looks very interesting, with a Moderate risk now in place, so the main focus is to relocate near to the risk area and anything we intercept on the way is a bonus. More later…

Net access still very variable, hence the more infrequent than ideal updates - but that's chasing in remote areas for you...

Day 6 Chase 4 Summary

HP Supercell, Large Hail, Lightning, Multiple Lowerings

Durant, OK to Ardmore, OK to Dodge City, KS to Kinsley, KS to Lewis, KS to Fellsburgh, KS to Pratt, KS (overnight)


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We carried on up toward the OK panhandle with the intention of intercepting storms coming east from New Mexico along the KS/OK border.

We noticed (during our very infrequent internet access windows) that a large cell had fired to the north west of Dodge. We could see this cell from north of Woodward, OK - over 100 miles away. As we watched, SPC laid a Tornado Watch on the storm.

We had decisions to make - this cell looked by far the best thing around, but was a long drive away to intercept. It was nearing 5 o'clock, and we didn't have a lot of daylight time left. We were also unsure of the exact motion and speed of the storm as we were running blind on data for much of the time.

But the cells in NM weren't looking too impressive, so we bit the bullet and ran north toward Dodge, planning for a intercept near Spearville to the ENE with hopefully enough daylight to see something. After yesterday's run for a Tornado Watched cell busted out on us, we were obviously somewhat apprehensive of the storm winding down and us being left high and dry once more.

Turned out to be our best decision yet.

The storm kept its integrity as we moved north out of Dodge, and started to look like a classic huge HP supercell. As we neared with a few miles from the main precipitation area, GRLevel3 showed about 6 Mesos with 3 inch hail being generated.


The storm loomed up toward us, but luckily we had a perfectly orientated road to parallel it as it moved east.



We were just in the right place - a zero precipitation area just to the south of multiple meso lowerings and wall clouds.



These wall clouds were producing so many really good looking lowerings that we were sure something must happen. The lightning was also getting constant, but what concerned us was another line of big cells that were catching us from behind. We stopped several times to take a look at this Beast, each time bombing up the road afterward to keep up with those rotating meso areas.



During one of these stops we came upon fresh large hail on the ground - around 2.5" diameter - so we didn't drive on too quickly!


More lowerings followed, but no identifiable tornado. By now the rear line of storms was catching us fast, and heavy rain mixed with hail started, and we were losing visability. We decided to bomb south to get into clearer air - but it was now getting dark quite quickly. Given what was going on around us, we didn't want to be chasing in the dark when a tornado was quite possible at any time. The road to the south we were on was not ideal, however - it was a gravel/dirt road that could easily flood if the rain caught up with us, and we could easily get stuck in mud or flood water. Added to which it was not on the map, we had no Google maps due to internet blackout, and the rear line of storms moving in from the west was about to do a pincer movement on us with the main storm to our north/north east.

Lightning was by now dancing all around us, anvil crawlers, anvil zits, CGs, CCs, the whole deal. I could make out cloud structure in the dark during each lightning strike in the important area behind us, whilst Sam was checking to our right in case anything was on the ground there as well. We could make out frequent lowerings from a wall cloud advancing toward our location from the west.

About 15 minutes down this road I noticed a wedge-shaped lowering lit up in the lightning about a half-mile or so behind us. The terrain was flat, and it wasn't hidden behind any trees, and it seemed to me to be in contact with the ground. I suggested to Neil that we should push on a bit quicker - luckily we then hit a main road (the 54), but not before a painfully slow traverse of some railroad tracks before the juntion. We pulled out eastbound on the 54. I could still make out some churing low clouds behind during lightning flashes, but we quickly pulled clear of this area.

I'm not sure what this was - I suspect a large lowering that wasn't a tornado, but this evening I've noticed Spotters have confirmed at least one tornado associated with this storm.
Anyway, after that it was on into Pratt (yes, yes very funny), and Days Inn for a lightning show as the storm system finally crossed us.
A great day - oh, and its now officially my 40th birthday in USA time as well as BST. Quite a birthday present...


Tomorrow looks like a leisurely drive eastward to position east of I-35 for Saturday's action. There's a bit of potential tomorrow, and if it comes across our path I dare say we'll chase it...

Pics and vids to follow from today. Sleep now....

Edit:

As promsied - some vids.

Warning! Some contain bad language!

Vid 1 of 3:

Vid 2 of 3:

Vid 3 of 3:


Day 6 Chase 4 Planning

First off - apologies for the lack of updates recently. We've had technical problems with net access.

A Slight risk over western KS today, so what-the-hey lets go for it, and another 300 mile drive awaits. Plan is to go for Liberal KS and see what’s occurring when we get there.

Only problem is that we have no internet connection, as a fuse has gone in the router power cable (hence no blog update till now), but Neil’s electrical wizardry in locating the problem and Radio Shack in Ardmore eventually sorted it out. We’re a bit behind schedule now, but still hoping to get in position for 4pm.

Day 5 3rd Chase Summary

Thunderstorms

Plainview, TX to Gainsville, TX to Alvord, TX to Sunset, TX to Whitesboro, TX to Bonham, TX to Durant OK


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I suppose many seasoned chasers might call it a Bust, as we didn’t get what we set out for in the way of tornadoes, but we did see some excellent-looking storms and some really explosive convection. The biggest disappointment was not what we did see, rather what we just missed out on.

Analysis at Gainsville had us torn between chasing a weak-looking but local cell in Parker county, or heading back west to a cell that had just become tornado warned. We chose the latter, and bombed 40 miles westward toward the tornado-warned cell, but that cell faded rapidly once we were in the area. Meanwhile, our Parker cell had really intensified (we didn’t just need GRLevel to tell us that, we could monster cloud tops back to our east), and dropped a funnel to the ground a little while later. Darn.

We chased back east, flanking some cells that were trundling eastward. Just past Whitesboro we pulled over under blue skies to look at the cells to our north. Suddenly we noticed very rapid convection over our heads with a good deal of rotation. We drove on following this new line of rapidly developing clouds just behind. I’ve never seen such rapid development, and indeed with 10 minutes fully grown cells had developed that were throwing down 1.5” hail. We hung back out of the large stuff, but still witnessed marble sized hail.

All this action was still moving rapidly east, but there was nothing happening in terms of tornadic potential. We bailed at 8pm, as we would loose the light in another half hour or so. We moved north to Durant in OK ready for a reposition north to west KS tomorrow.

A vid of a frustrating day, plus some lightning vid from last night to follow…



Wednesday, 7 May 2008

Day 5 3rd Chase - Update 19.42 BST

We're 10 miles outside Gainsville, heading into NE Texas, and the SPC has just released a Public Severe Weather Outlook for the area to the east of the I-35:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html
...which is about an hour away for us heading east...

Day 5 3rd Chase Planning & Repositioning

Those storms rumbled on over Plainview for most of the night, and the day started overcast with heavy rain and occasional lightning. No time to stand and watch though, as we had to hightail it eastward to position for the day's action this afternoon.

A long drive was always on the cards, as we try to get in front of the Low that brought us all the action today. Early model runs were pointing to CAPE of over 2500 and LI of -8 to -10, and SRH of 300 around the TX/OK border to the east of Wichita Falls. Early SPC also favoured this area, and indeed upgraded to Moderate risk later in the morning for an area around the border from the I35 eastward. Tornadoes are still a risk, along with supercells and large hail. The action should kick off from mid-afternoon onwards, so we're currently (at 18.23 BST) driving along the I35, 10 miles outside Wichita Falls.


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Day 4 Chase Sumary

Supercells, Lightning Show

Guymon, OK to Canadian, TX to Pampa, TX to Canyon, TX to Plainview, TX




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Another great day of storms. After we stopped in Canadian for lunch, we did a data check and decided to re-route further to the South West, and abandon heading for Childress, as the storms were firing up late in SW Texas/ New Mexico, and didn't look like getting up to the Childress area until after dark.
We then took the I-40 down through Pampa, through Amarillo, and into Canyon for another pit-stop. Big, big cells were now firing down to the south west of our location, tracking north-east. We deceided on Plainview to book in for the night, as it was now past 5pm, and we'd chase from there after reserving rooms at the Best Western.
After getting to the hotel, we parked up and noticed a huge anvil off to the south east, and a big line of towers shooting up to the south.
Anvil to our east

Storms moving up from the South

We elected to stay put and watch the situation develop at the hotel for a while. At that time a tornado watch was in effect for the whole of the area we were in, and there were reports of lowerings from the cloud base of the storm to our east from other spotters in the area. This storm was tracking north-east, taking it to the north of our current location.


The GRLevel3 radar then indicated that the storm to the east had split into two cells. This has the effect of firstly de-intensifying the two "child" storms, as they compete against each other for available energy, but also more often than not means that the southern-most storm takes a dive to the right rather than following its previous track. Further radar analysis showed that this was indeed occuring, and the potentially tornadic storm was coming straight for us.

It was then that we noticed that a wall cloud had decended from the meso :


This got our attention as tornadoes can form under these structures, and as it moved toward us we saw several lowerings that just didn't quite make it into tornadoes:



The right veering supercell was then caught by the line of storms to the south, which effectively wiped out any chance of anything more developing from the wall cloud, and it got a bit messy for a while, as we got pea-sized hail and lightning. The collection of cells then moved away north, and we had clear air.


But another gaggle of strong cells were moving up from the south west for about 10pm, so just enough time for some Chinese takeaway before a memorable lightning show commenced. CC and CG lightning was almost constant for a couple of hours after dark - some incredible strikes (even I managed to get some shots with my basic still camera). A late night to bed, but an early start in the morning - massive potential in southern OK and NE Texas tomorrow!



Tuesday, 6 May 2008

Day 4 2nd Chase On The Road

14.45pm, Pampa Texas

A day of decisions that have been "fine-tuned" since we set off this morning, but hey, that's the nature of chasing.

Updates in model output and SPC guidance have led us to favour a more western location within the Texas panhandle. The reasoning for this is that the dryline doesn't look like its going to be moving into Texas from New Mexico as far as previousloy thought. The eastern panhandle destination towards Childress now looks like being too far east to see anything before dark.

So now we're heading toward Amarillo once more from Pampa, where we'll take another look at things.

Day 4 2nd Chase Planning

The day dawned clooudy and cool this morning, but the low deck cleared quickly to bright sunshine by 9am. This is good news, as the worry was that low stuff left by all the storms yesterday might inhibit convection today.

The SPC warnings for today cover a vast area, but a closer look at some of the high-res models indicates a couple of areas of interest - one in the western TX panhandle between Canadian and Childress, the other back in SW Kansas around Garden City/Dodge City. Baring in mind that tomorrows activity looks like being in central/western OK, we've decided to take the southern route into TX. This area also looks like being the more tornadic option, and we've a taste for blood after yesrerday!

We're looking at going to Canadian TX first and have a look at see what's developing, then maybe head further south to Childress if things are bubbling up there.

More news later after repositioning.


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Day 3 Chase Summary

Thunderstorms, Tornado




Amarillo TX, to Guymon OK, to Elkhart KS, to Richfield KS. Return to Guymon OK for overnight.

Our first chase, and we got up close and personal with a brief tornado on the ground...

We started off in Amarillo with the intention of driving up into the OK panhandle in order to position for activity later in the day in that area and southern Kansas.

After arriving in Guymon at lunchtime, we stopped for a review of the data. The skies were mostly clear, with not much convection in sight. Studying GRLevel enabled us to pick up on cells that were firing in New Mexico, but whilst these were heading in our direction they were a long way away.

Then we noticed a cell firing up in SE Colorado that looked like it was tracking eastward into the extreme SW Kansas, which was about an hour away from our location. Game on! We stowed the gear and headed off on our first intercept.

About 20 minutes into the drive we noticed a big anvil coming out of the haze to our ENE. We headed up into Kansas, tracking the storm on GRLevel in order to pick an intercept point. We headed up to Richfield KS, and parked up to take a look at the storm. By now it had grown considerably, but had split into two cells, which meant the activity was dimished as the cells robbed each other of valuable energy. It was also back-building to the SW. It was by now producing 1" hail, so we needed to make sure we were in a safe position to avoid the hail core.

Then we noticed a line of very rapidly building cells off to the north, heading toward Garden City KS. We made the mistake of abandoning our intercept cell and heading north to try and pick up on one of these new cells, as our storm seemed to be weaking after splitting. We soon realised that the drive would take too long to get to these northern storms, as their movement was taking them away from us, so we'd always be playing catch-up with them.

We headed back to Richfield, and decided to retrace our steps further east to intercept our original storm. We parked up (by a major gas pipeline - hmmmm) and watched as the southern cell of the split rolled in toward us. It seemed to really intensify before our eyes, and CC and CG lightning increased in frequency. The cloud structure was looking really crazy, and seemed to be building southwards over our location. Lots of movement in the clouds - always an interesting sign.

I was videoing an interesting disturbance in the cloud base to the north when I heard Neil shout somehting about a tornado on the ground! He was looking west - into relatively clear air - and sure enough there it was! Lots of debris being thrown up on the ground, and as I watched a debris vortex spun up toward the clouds above - absolutely incredible. The downside was that it was about a mile away, and was showing little sideways movement - always a bad sign, as this would indicate that the chances are that it is coming straight toward you. Discression took the better part of valour, and as the car was pointing in the direction of the twister we decided to get the hell out of Dodge!

Its tricky to make out as its a still from a video, so apologies for the quality. This image shows an arrow pointing to the vortex:



And this video shows what effect it had on us tornado virgins:
(Warning: contains very strong language! Lucy: not suitable for Emily - Daddy says "fluff" a lot)


We then headed south to get out from under the danger area. Then we noticed some more ground disturbance ahead on our right:


This disturbance dissapated quickly, and we drove on. Back in the OK panhandle, we then headed east, flanking the storm as we headed back toward Guymon where we spent the night. We saw some night lightning from cells rumbling away to our north east, but nothing came over us.

Roll on tomorrow!

Monday, 5 May 2008

Day 3 1st Chase

We're off and running heading up into the OK panhandle from TX as I type, having decided to chase in south west Kansas.

We're just about to cross over into OK from TX on the route below at 11.34am (17.54 BST)Currently the low cloud deck is breaking nicely, small small cumulus drifitng around. Temp is 26c. Back later when (hopefully) the action starts...






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Sunday, 4 May 2008

Day 2 Update - Caught By The Fuzz!

En route to Amarillo (yes, that Amarillo) as I type, due in around 6pm local (Midnight BST). Chance of some elevated storms coming in off the high plains tonight, but the risk is very slight.

The main purpose is to reposition for the push north through OK into Kansas tomorrow, where the main chance of action looks likely in the afternoon. 7 hour drive - better get used to them!

The main incident of note en-route: we were pulled over by a Texas state trooper for speeding! The nice gentleman let us off with a friendly word of caution though. We love Texas...Neil has some surrupticiously taped video - check out his blog to see it later when he uploads.

Staying at the Big Texan tonight - a well renowned Texas stake house and motel. It serves a 72oz steak as the house speciality - and no, I'll not be having one thank-you, forgot the pepto-bismol and stomach pump.


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Day 2 - Repositioning

An early post, as jet lag finds me up and about at 6am. A good excuse to check the equipment and the latest forecast guidance.

Good call by Keith re the maps, so here's our current location:


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I'll update with a map after each relocation.

Today looks like being a repositioning day, with not too much in the way of severe weather to warrant an all-out chase. Some scattered storms possible in TX panhandle, which will probably tie in with our relocation plans.

Discussion to come over breakfast, will post later on what strategies materialise!

Day 1 - Arrivals!

York to London, London to Dallas Fort Worth, Dallas Fort Worth to Lewisville - Best Western Hotel overnight.

The end of a long, long day!

An early start with many modes of transportation, but all went well and connections were made without any disasters. We're now at the Best Western in Lewisville, Texas - which is only just up the road from the airport.

A much needed couple of cold brews and a nice Mexican meal, and its early to bed to catch up on some sleep, and a long drive northward tomorrow. Things look quiet tomorrow, before the promise of some good activity on Monday onwards. This all looks like being in OK and KS, so we're on a repositioning drive tomorrow after checking the latest output in the morning.

Thursday, 1 May 2008

Super Models...

…or not, as the case may be!

2 days until departure, and all eyes are on the forecast models and their predictions for next week. It’s a frustrating business, because of the variability between each run that can raise or dash hopes. It’s often too easy to get hung up on each run, especially when the period in question is still a few days away.

What we can say at this point is that most models are pointing toward a quieter spell from Saturday through to Monday at the earliest, with high pressure over most of the Plains. What this means is that the potential for organised severe weather is reduced, as High Pressure will act like a lid on the convection from the surface. On the ground this will translate into lovely sunny weather, with temperatures for Dallas progged in the mid 20s – but we’re not there to enjoy the sunshine!

Things start to get more interesting from Tuesday/Wednesday onwards, as low pressure to the west of the Plains may move in, which should do two things – firstly help increase the moisture coming up from the Gulf of Mexico, and secondly help de-stabilise the atmosphere (remove that lid that was inhibiting the convection). This is still a long way out though, so there’s just no way of knowing where or even if things are likely to go “bang”.

Back to the packing…

Tuesday, 29 April 2008

Storm Chasing 101

As we go along I’ll attempt to highlight our route on maps on this blog to show where we end up on chase (or bust) days. But first of all, it may help those who were dozing at the back of the class during O level Geography to take a look at the states of the USA, and where “Tornado Alley” actually is:


The area highlighted in yellow is (roughly) the area where severe storms and tornadoes can occur at this time of year in the USA. The “Chase Season” (i.e. when storm chasers think its worth their while heading out and trying to track down severe storms) usually starts in April and lasts through to mid/late June. As a rule of thumb, the later in this period you chase, the further north the storms are likely to be. That is not to say that storms and tornadoes don’t occur outside this period – they can occur virtually at any time of year – for example, there was a big outbreak back in February this year. In early to mid May, the favoured states tend to be Texas, Okalahoma, and up into Kansas.

How will we know where to go to chase the storms? The $1m question! I think this side of chase planning falls into pre-chase day and on the day itself. Looking at computer forecast models and the SPC’s advanced warnings will give a good indication of the general area you will want to be in a couple of days beforehand. The night before you’ll pick a hotel to stay in that’s pretty much at the “bullseye” of your chosen area. On the day itself, you’ll study the latest real-time data (soundings, satellite, radar etc) and model predictions and see what adjustments to your position you want to make – unfortunately these can be long distances if your pre-chase-day analysis hasn’t quite come off! When you’re on the road on chase day you will constantly re-analyse this data and make use of Doppler radar, but also I think simply looking out of the window at what the sky is actually doing is also a very valuable tool!

You can’t be everywhere at the same time, so you’ll miss out on some storms simply because its just too far to relocate for the next day’s chasing. Some days the prognosis will just be too poor to warrant an 8 hour drive to chase congestus that’s capped to the hilt – but that’s what hotel pools and State Parks were invented for. Sometimes the prognosis looks good, and you make the 8 hour drive only to find diddly-squat. That’s what’s known as a Bust Day. Let’s hope we don’t get too many of those…

Final Countdown...

Sam and Neil had a productive pre-chase meet-up by all accounts on Saturday 26th, and we all got together via MSN on the Sunday night to go through some of the issues discussed.

At the moment the main “unknown” that still exists is where we’re headed once we’re off the plane on Saturday. The GFS is currently pointing toward most favourable conditions in the South of the plains, so we may well stay in TX rather than heading north into OK, as was the original idea. We’ll take another good look on Thursday night/Friday morning before the final decision is made and a hotel is selected. At least it looks like we won’t be embarking on a mammoth 12 hour drive up to the Dakotas to catch some action on Sunday!

Thursday, 24 April 2008

A bit of Bio

I suppose I should put something in here about myself, although many reading this probably know me already, but for those that don't:

I'm Ben Howard, soon to be 40, I'm married with a 7 year-old daughter, and live in York. I work as an IT Consultant, and I hate scrambled eggs.

My interest in the weather was borne out of childhood experiences of snow, heatwaves and storms. As I grew older I became more interested in how and why these events occurred, and tried hard to bore others around me with incessant predictions on what the weather would be like next week.

This inevitably lead to the world's first ever weather blog - TSO Weather - which was published on an almost daily basis on the mainframe systems of the then General Accident Life Assurance Corporation in 1992, with an estimated readership of over 12.

My reasons for Storm Chasing USA? A once-in-a-lifetime chance to see the kinds of storms that I can only dream of in the UK, even if we strike out on the tornado front. Get my excuses in early - I prefer lightning anyway...

Test of Image and Video


A post for purely technical reasons, to test the upload of image and video from the laptop. I was never in the Scouts, but I like to think I am prepared...
This picture, incidentally, was of a threatening looking sky in summer 2006. Hopefully we'll get something a bit more photogenic on the Southern Plains.
And for the video:


No, that's not my bear frolicking in the lake in our back garden. Its the Windows Vista Bear, and the only small bit of video I could lay my hands on.

Note to self: 100mb max size on vids. May use photobucket as well.

Meet The Team

Its about time I introduced you to the other members of the TWO Chase Team:

Neil Robinson, from South Hampshire - catch up with Neil's blog here

Sam Adams, from Cirencester - catch up with Sam's blog here

The SUV, from Dallas - doesn't have a blog, but may end up with many a tale to tell.

On The Move

9 Days To Go

The blog's been moved from Windows Live Spaces over to Blog Spot, as this seems to offer much better image and layout capabilities. It does however mean that the date stamps against entries prior to this are somewhat inaccurate. Ho Hum...

What I hope to be doing on this blog when we're actually out in the States is to publish daily accounts of chases and (hopefully!) storm interceptions, along with images and video.

Preparation continues at pace, alongside trying to clear down all work commitments before next Friday, when we're doing on-line check-in and selecting the hotel for our first night. That will all depend on what the synoptics throw up nearer the time.

On the weather front there's been some decent activity in TX and OK yesterday which looks like continuing into today, but further north into KS. Things then look like they'll go a bit quiet in the 3 to 7 day period, but GFS runs seem to be pointing to renewed activity after that. At this range that should be taken with a Siberian-sized pinch of salt, however.

More Trip Preparation!

12 Days To Go

Now the flights have been re-routed (pronounced: "rowted", must get into the lingua franca) via Heathrow Terminal 4 instead of the luggage black hole of Terminal 5, many of our outbound concerns have been somewhat eased. The departure time remains the same, so the dash down on the 6am Kings Cross train from York is still on. Any bringing forward of the departure time would cause some mild panic on my part...

Got some dollars last week at 1.94, which is not too bad, but Sod's Law came into effect, and stirling continues to rise this week.

On the meteorogical front, after a calm few days it looks like there's some chasable weather this week in the Plains. The longer term outlook is too variable to trust, as although the longer range model runs (GFS) are starting to cover the period when we go, its still deep in the realms on Fantasy Island.

Trip Preparation

31/03/2008- 33 Days to Go

Some very intense looking storms going on overnight in OK and SE KS, tornado watches are out and the radars look amazing. Later tonight looks interesting too, as there are plenty of warnings out for supercell storms and possible tornadoes. Looking at the data, I’m going for a chase base of Hugo in Choctaw county, OK. We shall see if my crash course in the atmospheric physics has sunk in…

BTW, anyone looking for some good background on storm chasing can find it here:
http://www.extremeinstability.com/topics.htm

30/03/2008 – 34 Days To Go

Just watched the channel 5 “Storm Chasers” programme. Its not at all bad, it depicts the often frustrating and mundane side of chasing more than some of the Nat Geo type programmes, where it seems all you have to do is drive your car around the block in any Kansas town and you’ll chance upon an F3. The reality is lots of long days on the road, often for very little result. A split second decision on which cell to chase after 6 hours on the road can be the difference between success and failure. Mind you, “failure” to many storm chasers means seeing a non-tornadic storm with a good lightning show – that would be a very good second best in my book.

Also had the “pleasure” of watching the film “Twister” again over the weekend, this time with my 7 year old daughter. “Will you see flying cows and barns when you go, Daddy?” I’ll be lucky to see an F1 from 2 miles away…

28/03/2008 - 36 Days To Go

We’re due to fly BA out of T5 on 03/05/2008, and its not been the most auspicious of openings for the new Terminal at Heathrow. Tales of mass cancellations, luggage piled up having not been put on people’s flights, and the “fast” bag drop being anything but.

It does beggar belief that after such a long run-in period with supposed stress-testing of the facility by “pretend” passengers that it could go so catastrophically wrong from day 1. Not enough parking spaces for staff and insufficient training for staff on the new systems? Doesn’t sound like much testing has gone on there at all…

They expect things to calm down during April, but then they move long-haul flights from T4 over to T5 at the end of the month, 3 days before we go. Another potential for gridlock there, methinks. Trouble is, if our luggage gets left behind, its not as if we can have it delivered on to a hotel a few days later – we don’t know where we’re going to be!

My timetable for travelling down to T5 on the Saturday is somewhat tight – 6am train from York, hoping to be at T5 for 9.30am, flight is 11.40am. Can’t afford too many delays dropping the bags off! Luckily all the check-in should be done on-line by then, its just ditching a bag and clearing security