Super Models...

…or not, as the case may be!

2 days until departure, and all eyes are on the forecast models and their predictions for next week. It’s a frustrating business, because of the variability between each run that can raise or dash hopes. It’s often too easy to get hung up on each run, especially when the period in question is still a few days away.

What we can say at this point is that most models are pointing toward a quieter spell from Saturday through to Monday at the earliest, with high pressure over most of the Plains. What this means is that the potential for organised severe weather is reduced, as High Pressure will act like a lid on the convection from the surface. On the ground this will translate into lovely sunny weather, with temperatures for Dallas progged in the mid 20s – but we’re not there to enjoy the sunshine!

Things start to get more interesting from Tuesday/Wednesday onwards, as low pressure to the west of the Plains may move in, which should do two things – firstly help increase the moisture coming up from the Gulf of Mexico, and secondly help de-stabilise the atmosphere (remove that lid that was inhibiting the convection). This is still a long way out though, so there’s just no way of knowing where or even if things are likely to go “bang”.

Back to the packing…