Days 10/11 - DFW to LHR to York
Finally back in York after a long, long journey home, but coming home is always worth the wait.
My memories of my first storm chase trip to the US? Some memorable storms and close encounters, amazing lightning shows and scary-sized hail.
Best Chase? The Kinsley supercell in Kansas takes the biscuit for me (Day 6, Chase 4). A long, long chase - but our decision to go for this beast rather than stick around in the OK panhandle waiting for the New Mexico storms was a good call.
Biggest Regret? Saturday's storms were big tornado producers but we didn't get to see one. The terrain and conditions made it really tough to view anything. But the loss of life in Picher, OK shows how deadly these things can be, so my thoughts are with the families of those that lost loved-ones. Storm chasing is a hobby, but with a serious side - anything we see that could pose a threat to life should always be reported to the relevant authorities so that warnings for these kind of communities can be made that could help reduce the number of casualties.
Would I go again? Definitely, but probably not for a couple of years. It feels too good to be safely back at home with the family again to consider going back out at the moment!
A final word of thanks to all those who've followed the Blog, and the feedback and comments that have been made. A special mention to Keith, for the mapping updates each chase - quality workmanship!
Check out Keith's great trip summary mapping here:
http://maps.google.co.uk/maps/ms?hl=en&ie=UTF8&msa=0&msid=116346435926735759882.00044c6abf6553978ade1&ll=35.442771,-98.327637&spn=11.840008,18.149414&z=6
Tuesday, 13 May 2008
Sunday, 11 May 2008
Day 9 Heading back toward DFW
The outlook for today is locked-down, with high pressure covering most of the plains.
Yesterday's storms continue to rumble on into the south-east USA, doubtless with more injuries or even fatalities to come. The disappointment of yesterday's near miss has changed into sadness for those that lost their lives, and a certain sense of relief that we didn't stumble into a life-threatening situation ourselves in that dangerous area south of Perryville.
Today we're running south-west on the 30 toward Dallas, probably staying at Greenville overnight before getting the rental back to Avis by 2pm tomorrow. Thence onward to DFW airport for our flight at 5.30pm. At least Greenville isn't in a Dry County...
Yesterday's storms continue to rumble on into the south-east USA, doubtless with more injuries or even fatalities to come. The disappointment of yesterday's near miss has changed into sadness for those that lost their lives, and a certain sense of relief that we didn't stumble into a life-threatening situation ourselves in that dangerous area south of Perryville.
Today we're running south-west on the 30 toward Dallas, probably staying at Greenville overnight before getting the rental back to Avis by 2pm tomorrow. Thence onward to DFW airport for our flight at 5.30pm. At least Greenville isn't in a Dry County...
Day 8 Chase 5 Summary
Damage Path, Hail, Tornadic Supercells
Mt. Pleasant, TX to Hope, AR to Malvern, AR to Conway, AR to Perry, AR to Perryville, AR to Bryant, AR to Malvern, AR (overnight)
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On a day when 21 people were killed by a large area of storms and tornadoes, it seems somewhat churlish to bemoan an opportunity missed on our chase.
We were chasing around central/western Arkansas, where the terrain was not conducive to easy and/or safe chasing. The roads are winding, and there are a lot of trees and hills. Our worse nightmare would be to crest a hill and see a large tornado coming toward us on he other side.
We came into Arkansas in the mid morning, and stopped at Hope for an assessment on data. The day was very hazy, and very hot. Guidance from SPC was that tornado warnings were in place over most of Arkansas, eastern OK, and NE Texas.
The problem for us (and all the other chasers) is that as mentioned above, this is poor chase territory, and these supercell storms were going to be running ESE at around 50 miles per hour, so keeping up with them would be tricky. Our best bet would be to locate to the SE of the path of one of these storms when they fired and hope to catch something as the storm ripped through.
The area north of us at Hope was very hilly, so we went further up the I-30 toward Little Rock so we had more options to cut north. Storms were now firing in East OK, and were looking very intense. They were also coming into north AR, hence our desire to have an option to head north. We stopped at Malvern for another check on data.
We decided to try and get up to Russelville area by cutting north over the hills. We would hopefully get up there before these big storms in Eastern OK crossed over into AR. Sadly GPS gave us the runaround, and we ended up back on the I-30 having missed our route straight north. We continued up I-30 and onto I-430, onto the I-40 headed north-west to try and intercept the storm directly west of Conway with a view to cutting back south-west to get to the tornadic supercell line coming into AR.
Mt. Pleasant, TX to Hope, AR to Malvern, AR to Conway, AR to Perry, AR to Perryville, AR to Bryant, AR to Malvern, AR (overnight)
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On a day when 21 people were killed by a large area of storms and tornadoes, it seems somewhat churlish to bemoan an opportunity missed on our chase.
We were chasing around central/western Arkansas, where the terrain was not conducive to easy and/or safe chasing. The roads are winding, and there are a lot of trees and hills. Our worse nightmare would be to crest a hill and see a large tornado coming toward us on he other side.
We came into Arkansas in the mid morning, and stopped at Hope for an assessment on data. The day was very hazy, and very hot. Guidance from SPC was that tornado warnings were in place over most of Arkansas, eastern OK, and NE Texas.
The problem for us (and all the other chasers) is that as mentioned above, this is poor chase territory, and these supercell storms were going to be running ESE at around 50 miles per hour, so keeping up with them would be tricky. Our best bet would be to locate to the SE of the path of one of these storms when they fired and hope to catch something as the storm ripped through.
The area north of us at Hope was very hilly, so we went further up the I-30 toward Little Rock so we had more options to cut north. Storms were now firing in East OK, and were looking very intense. They were also coming into north AR, hence our desire to have an option to head north. We stopped at Malvern for another check on data.
We decided to try and get up to Russelville area by cutting north over the hills. We would hopefully get up there before these big storms in Eastern OK crossed over into AR. Sadly GPS gave us the runaround, and we ended up back on the I-30 having missed our route straight north. We continued up I-30 and onto I-430, onto the I-40 headed north-west to try and intercept the storm directly west of Conway with a view to cutting back south-west to get to the tornadic supercell line coming into AR.
By now there were 10 Tornado warned storms, with the line coming in from the west all having tornado warnings on them.
At Conway, we pulled over to see what the cell coming in from the west was up to. There was some lightning associated with it, but it wasn't springing into life as we had hoped. We pushed west and then south to Perry, back into the hilly stuff, with the intention of cutting back south-west to intercept the tornado-warned supercells coming from the west.
As we were coming round the I-40 toward Morniton, it became obvious that things were erupting over the hills south of Perry and Perryville - right across our planned route. We checked it out on GRLevel3 - and were informed that this supercell was chucking down 3" hail, easily enough to bust a windscreen and leave us stuck in remote country. In Perry we spotted a closed gas station with a roof over the pump area, so we pulled in to ride out the hail before pushing onward. This storm was also exhibiting rotation, with about 4 meso areas around its south eastern flank, and a pronounced hook signature forming. We really needed to get south so we could have a look at this thing where all the action was occurring.
The north-west area of the storm rolled over us, with rain then hail. To our surprise and dismay the hail was fairly minor - only 1/2" at best - we could have easily punched this and carried on. As it was, we had lost a good 20 minutes - which was to prove decisive.
We carried on past Williams Junction, onward to Paron. At this point the inevitable happened - the storm became tornado warned with a confirmed funnel on the ground west of Hurricane Lake - some 20 miles to our south-east. The roads were winding, so we couldn't risk going any faster. We then came across large amounts of debris on the road north of Benton - large tree branches and foliage which we obviously had to slow down for. This may have just been straight line wind damage, but having check later on the tornado's path, we were in the right area for where it first hit the ground - but we were 20 minutes too late.
If we'd have punched the hail core at Perry then we may have been in the game for chasing this tornado, but by now it was through Alexander into the Shannon Hills, east of which the river would have blocked all further chasing, and the whole system was moving ESE at 50mph. According to reports, it carried on ESE all the way to Stuttgart AR - a track of some 70 miles.
With daylight fading, we decided to head back SW on the 30 to try and catch the supercells coming in from OK. But it just wasn't going to be our day - the cells on the northern end of the line that would have headed into a chasable area were fading, with the main action far to the south-west, near the Texas border, which was an hour and a half away. These cells were still dropping funnels, and there were multiple reports of tornadoes that evening and overnight.
Looks like this was out last chase day - very frustrating, considering what was going on today, but we came pretty close!
Saturday, 10 May 2008
Day 8 Chase 5 Planning - Update
Storms are firing quite widely around our location, but we're headed into Arkansas toward Little Rock up the I-30 into prime tornado country for later today. More later...
Day 8 Chase 5 Planning
A very large risk area today. SPC's take on things is to bring an upper low down into the northern plains and eject eastward across Mississippi. This has the effect of drawing up a lot of moisture from the south (believe me, its here in NE TX already), which provides the energy for storms to fire. Looks like there will also be a mid-level wind max that will whip across the plains eastward, which will provide the wind shear from lower to upper levels. This is the forcing for these storms to rotate, which helps create supercells ripe for tornadic potential.
Tornadoes could form anywhere from NE TX, SE OK into central and S. Arkansas from early afternoon onward, with this risk moving east as time goes on. Looks like were not talking brief EF0 touchdowns, rather some long-lived big outbreaks. Tasty...
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html
Tornadoes could form anywhere from NE TX, SE OK into central and S. Arkansas from early afternoon onward, with this risk moving east as time goes on. Looks like were not talking brief EF0 touchdowns, rather some long-lived big outbreaks. Tasty...
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html
Day 7 Summary
Pratt, KS to Wichita, KS to Tulsa, OK to Mt. Pleasant, TX
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Well a day that held a marginal chance of chasing en route to our relocation target of NE Texas turned out to be just a relocation day. Some big cells fired way up north in Nebraska, but chasing those from Kansas would have ruled out a big potential chase tomorrow further south and east. An isolated cell also went up south-west of Dallas, but we had no meaningful daylight left to go after it. It may cross us at 2am though given its current vectoring!
So we're now overnighting in Mt. Pleasant, Texas, waiting on news of a potentially very potent day tomorrow. Supercells, large hail and tornadoes are all on the cards over a large area. Our plan is to check the latest data in the morning and decide if we need to fine tune our position in the morning. This may involve chasing into Arkansas, or even Louisiana. Hopefully we can stay in Texas though - the chasing is not so good further east due to rolling terrain and more forests, which will restrict visibility, and a road network that is not as trellised as the good chasing country in OK and KS.
On a personal note, its been the most sober birthday I can remember for some time! Thanks for all the happy birthday messages, and for all the other great comments on the blog - great to know someone out there is reading it!
More tomorrow, hopefully before we set off, otherwise an update tomorrow night, as I doubt we'll have much net access on the road again...
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Well a day that held a marginal chance of chasing en route to our relocation target of NE Texas turned out to be just a relocation day. Some big cells fired way up north in Nebraska, but chasing those from Kansas would have ruled out a big potential chase tomorrow further south and east. An isolated cell also went up south-west of Dallas, but we had no meaningful daylight left to go after it. It may cross us at 2am though given its current vectoring!
So we're now overnighting in Mt. Pleasant, Texas, waiting on news of a potentially very potent day tomorrow. Supercells, large hail and tornadoes are all on the cards over a large area. Our plan is to check the latest data in the morning and decide if we need to fine tune our position in the morning. This may involve chasing into Arkansas, or even Louisiana. Hopefully we can stay in Texas though - the chasing is not so good further east due to rolling terrain and more forests, which will restrict visibility, and a road network that is not as trellised as the good chasing country in OK and KS.
On a personal note, its been the most sober birthday I can remember for some time! Thanks for all the happy birthday messages, and for all the other great comments on the blog - great to know someone out there is reading it!
More tomorrow, hopefully before we set off, otherwise an update tomorrow night, as I doubt we'll have much net access on the road again...
Friday, 9 May 2008
Day 7 Chase Planning
Day 7 Chase 5 Planning
What looked like being a leisurely drive over toward east Kansas for a repositioning for Saturday’s potential has evolved into something more, as potential exists in our repositioning area in the far east of OK into the Ozarks. We’ll see what pops up during the day. Tomorrow looks very interesting, with a Moderate risk now in place, so the main focus is to relocate near to the risk area and anything we intercept on the way is a bonus. More later…
Net access still very variable, hence the more infrequent than ideal updates - but that's chasing in remote areas for you...
What looked like being a leisurely drive over toward east Kansas for a repositioning for Saturday’s potential has evolved into something more, as potential exists in our repositioning area in the far east of OK into the Ozarks. We’ll see what pops up during the day. Tomorrow looks very interesting, with a Moderate risk now in place, so the main focus is to relocate near to the risk area and anything we intercept on the way is a bonus. More later…
Net access still very variable, hence the more infrequent than ideal updates - but that's chasing in remote areas for you...
Day 6 Chase 4 Summary
HP Supercell, Large Hail, Lightning, Multiple Lowerings
Durant, OK to Ardmore, OK to Dodge City, KS to Kinsley, KS to Lewis, KS to Fellsburgh, KS to Pratt, KS (overnight)
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We carried on up toward the OK panhandle with the intention of intercepting storms coming east from New Mexico along the KS/OK border.
We noticed (during our very infrequent internet access windows) that a large cell had fired to the north west of Dodge. We could see this cell from north of Woodward, OK - over 100 miles away. As we watched, SPC laid a Tornado Watch on the storm.
We had decisions to make - this cell looked by far the best thing around, but was a long drive away to intercept. It was nearing 5 o'clock, and we didn't have a lot of daylight time left. We were also unsure of the exact motion and speed of the storm as we were running blind on data for much of the time.
But the cells in NM weren't looking too impressive, so we bit the bullet and ran north toward Dodge, planning for a intercept near Spearville to the ENE with hopefully enough daylight to see something. After yesterday's run for a Tornado Watched cell busted out on us, we were obviously somewhat apprehensive of the storm winding down and us being left high and dry once more.
Turned out to be our best decision yet.
The storm kept its integrity as we moved north out of Dodge, and started to look like a classic huge HP supercell. As we neared with a few miles from the main precipitation area, GRLevel3 showed about 6 Mesos with 3 inch hail being generated.
More lowerings followed, but no identifiable tornado. By now the rear line of storms was catching us fast, and heavy rain mixed with hail started, and we were losing visability. We decided to bomb south to get into clearer air - but it was now getting dark quite quickly. Given what was going on around us, we didn't want to be chasing in the dark when a tornado was quite possible at any time. The road to the south we were on was not ideal, however - it was a gravel/dirt road that could easily flood if the rain caught up with us, and we could easily get stuck in mud or flood water. Added to which it was not on the map, we had no Google maps due to internet blackout, and the rear line of storms moving in from the west was about to do a pincer movement on us with the main storm to our north/north east.
Lightning was by now dancing all around us, anvil crawlers, anvil zits, CGs, CCs, the whole deal. I could make out cloud structure in the dark during each lightning strike in the important area behind us, whilst Sam was checking to our right in case anything was on the ground there as well. We could make out frequent lowerings from a wall cloud advancing toward our location from the west.
About 15 minutes down this road I noticed a wedge-shaped lowering lit up in the lightning about a half-mile or so behind us. The terrain was flat, and it wasn't hidden behind any trees, and it seemed to me to be in contact with the ground. I suggested to Neil that we should push on a bit quicker - luckily we then hit a main road (the 54), but not before a painfully slow traverse of some railroad tracks before the juntion. We pulled out eastbound on the 54. I could still make out some churing low clouds behind during lightning flashes, but we quickly pulled clear of this area.
I'm not sure what this was - I suspect a large lowering that wasn't a tornado, but this evening I've noticed Spotters have confirmed at least one tornado associated with this storm.
Anyway, after that it was on into Pratt (yes, yes very funny), and Days Inn for a lightning show as the storm system finally crossed us.
A great day - oh, and its now officially my 40th birthday in USA time as well as BST. Quite a birthday present...
Vid 1 of 3:
Durant, OK to Ardmore, OK to Dodge City, KS to Kinsley, KS to Lewis, KS to Fellsburgh, KS to Pratt, KS (overnight)
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We carried on up toward the OK panhandle with the intention of intercepting storms coming east from New Mexico along the KS/OK border.
We noticed (during our very infrequent internet access windows) that a large cell had fired to the north west of Dodge. We could see this cell from north of Woodward, OK - over 100 miles away. As we watched, SPC laid a Tornado Watch on the storm.
We had decisions to make - this cell looked by far the best thing around, but was a long drive away to intercept. It was nearing 5 o'clock, and we didn't have a lot of daylight time left. We were also unsure of the exact motion and speed of the storm as we were running blind on data for much of the time.
But the cells in NM weren't looking too impressive, so we bit the bullet and ran north toward Dodge, planning for a intercept near Spearville to the ENE with hopefully enough daylight to see something. After yesterday's run for a Tornado Watched cell busted out on us, we were obviously somewhat apprehensive of the storm winding down and us being left high and dry once more.
Turned out to be our best decision yet.
The storm kept its integrity as we moved north out of Dodge, and started to look like a classic huge HP supercell. As we neared with a few miles from the main precipitation area, GRLevel3 showed about 6 Mesos with 3 inch hail being generated.
The storm loomed up toward us, but luckily we had a perfectly orientated road to parallel it as it moved east.
We were just in the right place - a zero precipitation area just to the south of multiple meso lowerings and wall clouds.
These wall clouds were producing so many really good looking lowerings that we were sure something must happen. The lightning was also getting constant, but what concerned us was another line of big cells that were catching us from behind. We stopped several times to take a look at this Beast, each time bombing up the road afterward to keep up with those rotating meso areas.
During one of these stops we came upon fresh large hail on the ground - around 2.5" diameter - so we didn't drive on too quickly!
More lowerings followed, but no identifiable tornado. By now the rear line of storms was catching us fast, and heavy rain mixed with hail started, and we were losing visability. We decided to bomb south to get into clearer air - but it was now getting dark quite quickly. Given what was going on around us, we didn't want to be chasing in the dark when a tornado was quite possible at any time. The road to the south we were on was not ideal, however - it was a gravel/dirt road that could easily flood if the rain caught up with us, and we could easily get stuck in mud or flood water. Added to which it was not on the map, we had no Google maps due to internet blackout, and the rear line of storms moving in from the west was about to do a pincer movement on us with the main storm to our north/north east.
Lightning was by now dancing all around us, anvil crawlers, anvil zits, CGs, CCs, the whole deal. I could make out cloud structure in the dark during each lightning strike in the important area behind us, whilst Sam was checking to our right in case anything was on the ground there as well. We could make out frequent lowerings from a wall cloud advancing toward our location from the west.
About 15 minutes down this road I noticed a wedge-shaped lowering lit up in the lightning about a half-mile or so behind us. The terrain was flat, and it wasn't hidden behind any trees, and it seemed to me to be in contact with the ground. I suggested to Neil that we should push on a bit quicker - luckily we then hit a main road (the 54), but not before a painfully slow traverse of some railroad tracks before the juntion. We pulled out eastbound on the 54. I could still make out some churing low clouds behind during lightning flashes, but we quickly pulled clear of this area.
I'm not sure what this was - I suspect a large lowering that wasn't a tornado, but this evening I've noticed Spotters have confirmed at least one tornado associated with this storm.
Anyway, after that it was on into Pratt (yes, yes very funny), and Days Inn for a lightning show as the storm system finally crossed us.
A great day - oh, and its now officially my 40th birthday in USA time as well as BST. Quite a birthday present...
Tomorrow looks like a leisurely drive eastward to position east of I-35 for Saturday's action. There's a bit of potential tomorrow, and if it comes across our path I dare say we'll chase it...
Pics and vids to follow from today. Sleep now....
Edit:
As promsied - some vids.
Warning! Some contain bad language!
Vid 2 of 3:
Vid 3 of 3:
Day 6 Chase 4 Planning
First off - apologies for the lack of updates recently. We've had technical problems with net access.
A Slight risk over western KS today, so what-the-hey lets go for it, and another 300 mile drive awaits. Plan is to go for Liberal KS and see what’s occurring when we get there.
Only problem is that we have no internet connection, as a fuse has gone in the router power cable (hence no blog update till now), but Neil’s electrical wizardry in locating the problem and Radio Shack in Ardmore eventually sorted it out. We’re a bit behind schedule now, but still hoping to get in position for 4pm.
A Slight risk over western KS today, so what-the-hey lets go for it, and another 300 mile drive awaits. Plan is to go for Liberal KS and see what’s occurring when we get there.
Only problem is that we have no internet connection, as a fuse has gone in the router power cable (hence no blog update till now), but Neil’s electrical wizardry in locating the problem and Radio Shack in Ardmore eventually sorted it out. We’re a bit behind schedule now, but still hoping to get in position for 4pm.
Day 5 3rd Chase Summary
Thunderstorms
Plainview, TX to Gainsville, TX to Alvord, TX to Sunset, TX to Whitesboro, TX to Bonham, TX to Durant OK
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I suppose many seasoned chasers might call it a Bust, as we didn’t get what we set out for in the way of tornadoes, but we did see some excellent-looking storms and some really explosive convection. The biggest disappointment was not what we did see, rather what we just missed out on.
Analysis at Gainsville had us torn between chasing a weak-looking but local cell in Parker county, or heading back west to a cell that had just become tornado warned. We chose the latter, and bombed 40 miles westward toward the tornado-warned cell, but that cell faded rapidly once we were in the area. Meanwhile, our Parker cell had really intensified (we didn’t just need GRLevel to tell us that, we could monster cloud tops back to our east), and dropped a funnel to the ground a little while later. Darn.
We chased back east, flanking some cells that were trundling eastward. Just past Whitesboro we pulled over under blue skies to look at the cells to our north. Suddenly we noticed very rapid convection over our heads with a good deal of rotation. We drove on following this new line of rapidly developing clouds just behind. I’ve never seen such rapid development, and indeed with 10 minutes fully grown cells had developed that were throwing down 1.5” hail. We hung back out of the large stuff, but still witnessed marble sized hail.
All this action was still moving rapidly east, but there was nothing happening in terms of tornadic potential. We bailed at 8pm, as we would loose the light in another half hour or so. We moved north to Durant in OK ready for a reposition north to west KS tomorrow.
A vid of a frustrating day, plus some lightning vid from last night to follow…
Plainview, TX to Gainsville, TX to Alvord, TX to Sunset, TX to Whitesboro, TX to Bonham, TX to Durant OK
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I suppose many seasoned chasers might call it a Bust, as we didn’t get what we set out for in the way of tornadoes, but we did see some excellent-looking storms and some really explosive convection. The biggest disappointment was not what we did see, rather what we just missed out on.
Analysis at Gainsville had us torn between chasing a weak-looking but local cell in Parker county, or heading back west to a cell that had just become tornado warned. We chose the latter, and bombed 40 miles westward toward the tornado-warned cell, but that cell faded rapidly once we were in the area. Meanwhile, our Parker cell had really intensified (we didn’t just need GRLevel to tell us that, we could monster cloud tops back to our east), and dropped a funnel to the ground a little while later. Darn.
We chased back east, flanking some cells that were trundling eastward. Just past Whitesboro we pulled over under blue skies to look at the cells to our north. Suddenly we noticed very rapid convection over our heads with a good deal of rotation. We drove on following this new line of rapidly developing clouds just behind. I’ve never seen such rapid development, and indeed with 10 minutes fully grown cells had developed that were throwing down 1.5” hail. We hung back out of the large stuff, but still witnessed marble sized hail.
All this action was still moving rapidly east, but there was nothing happening in terms of tornadic potential. We bailed at 8pm, as we would loose the light in another half hour or so. We moved north to Durant in OK ready for a reposition north to west KS tomorrow.
A vid of a frustrating day, plus some lightning vid from last night to follow…
Wednesday, 7 May 2008
Day 5 3rd Chase - Update 19.42 BST
We're 10 miles outside Gainsville, heading into NE Texas, and the SPC has just released a Public Severe Weather Outlook for the area to the east of the I-35:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html
...which is about an hour away for us heading east...
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html
...which is about an hour away for us heading east...
Day 5 3rd Chase Planning & Repositioning
Those storms rumbled on over Plainview for most of the night, and the day started overcast with heavy rain and occasional lightning. No time to stand and watch though, as we had to hightail it eastward to position for the day's action this afternoon.
A long drive was always on the cards, as we try to get in front of the Low that brought us all the action today. Early model runs were pointing to CAPE of over 2500 and LI of -8 to -10, and SRH of 300 around the TX/OK border to the east of Wichita Falls. Early SPC also favoured this area, and indeed upgraded to Moderate risk later in the morning for an area around the border from the I35 eastward. Tornadoes are still a risk, along with supercells and large hail. The action should kick off from mid-afternoon onwards, so we're currently (at 18.23 BST) driving along the I35, 10 miles outside Wichita Falls.
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A long drive was always on the cards, as we try to get in front of the Low that brought us all the action today. Early model runs were pointing to CAPE of over 2500 and LI of -8 to -10, and SRH of 300 around the TX/OK border to the east of Wichita Falls. Early SPC also favoured this area, and indeed upgraded to Moderate risk later in the morning for an area around the border from the I35 eastward. Tornadoes are still a risk, along with supercells and large hail. The action should kick off from mid-afternoon onwards, so we're currently (at 18.23 BST) driving along the I35, 10 miles outside Wichita Falls.
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Day 4 Chase Sumary
Supercells, Lightning Show
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Anvil to our east
The GRLevel3 radar then indicated that the storm to the east had split into two cells. This has the effect of firstly de-intensifying the two "child" storms, as they compete against each other for available energy, but also more often than not means that the southern-most storm takes a dive to the right rather than following its previous track. Further radar analysis showed that this was indeed occuring, and the potentially tornadic storm was coming straight for us.
The right veering supercell was then caught by the line of storms to the south, which effectively wiped out any chance of anything more developing from the wall cloud, and it got a bit messy for a while, as we got pea-sized hail and lightning. The collection of cells then moved away north, and we had clear air.
But another gaggle of strong cells were moving up from the south west for about 10pm, so just enough time for some Chinese takeaway before a memorable lightning show commenced. CC and CG lightning was almost constant for a couple of hours after dark - some incredible strikes (even I managed to get some shots with my basic still camera). A late night to bed, but an early start in the morning - massive potential in southern OK and NE Texas tomorrow!
Guymon, OK to Canadian, TX to Pampa, TX to Canyon, TX to Plainview, TX
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Another great day of storms. After we stopped in Canadian for lunch, we did a data check and decided to re-route further to the South West, and abandon heading for Childress, as the storms were firing up late in SW Texas/ New Mexico, and didn't look like getting up to the Childress area until after dark.
We then took the I-40 down through Pampa, through Amarillo, and into Canyon for another pit-stop. Big, big cells were now firing down to the south west of our location, tracking north-east. We deceided on Plainview to book in for the night, as it was now past 5pm, and we'd chase from there after reserving rooms at the Best Western.
After getting to the hotel, we parked up and noticed a huge anvil off to the south east, and a big line of towers shooting up to the south.
Anvil to our east Storms moving up from the South
We elected to stay put and watch the situation develop at the hotel for a while. At that time a tornado watch was in effect for the whole of the area we were in, and there were reports of lowerings from the cloud base of the storm to our east from other spotters in the area. This storm was tracking north-east, taking it to the north of our current location.
The GRLevel3 radar then indicated that the storm to the east had split into two cells. This has the effect of firstly de-intensifying the two "child" storms, as they compete against each other for available energy, but also more often than not means that the southern-most storm takes a dive to the right rather than following its previous track. Further radar analysis showed that this was indeed occuring, and the potentially tornadic storm was coming straight for us.It was then that we noticed that a wall cloud had decended from the meso :
This got our attention as tornadoes can form under these structures, and as it moved toward us we saw several lowerings that just didn't quite make it into tornadoes:
The right veering supercell was then caught by the line of storms to the south, which effectively wiped out any chance of anything more developing from the wall cloud, and it got a bit messy for a while, as we got pea-sized hail and lightning. The collection of cells then moved away north, and we had clear air.
But another gaggle of strong cells were moving up from the south west for about 10pm, so just enough time for some Chinese takeaway before a memorable lightning show commenced. CC and CG lightning was almost constant for a couple of hours after dark - some incredible strikes (even I managed to get some shots with my basic still camera). A late night to bed, but an early start in the morning - massive potential in southern OK and NE Texas tomorrow!
Tuesday, 6 May 2008
Day 4 2nd Chase On The Road
14.45pm, Pampa Texas
A day of decisions that have been "fine-tuned" since we set off this morning, but hey, that's the nature of chasing.
Updates in model output and SPC guidance have led us to favour a more western location within the Texas panhandle. The reasoning for this is that the dryline doesn't look like its going to be moving into Texas from New Mexico as far as previousloy thought. The eastern panhandle destination towards Childress now looks like being too far east to see anything before dark.
So now we're heading toward Amarillo once more from Pampa, where we'll take another look at things.
A day of decisions that have been "fine-tuned" since we set off this morning, but hey, that's the nature of chasing.
Updates in model output and SPC guidance have led us to favour a more western location within the Texas panhandle. The reasoning for this is that the dryline doesn't look like its going to be moving into Texas from New Mexico as far as previousloy thought. The eastern panhandle destination towards Childress now looks like being too far east to see anything before dark.
So now we're heading toward Amarillo once more from Pampa, where we'll take another look at things.
Day 4 2nd Chase Planning
The day dawned clooudy and cool this morning, but the low deck cleared quickly to bright sunshine by 9am. This is good news, as the worry was that low stuff left by all the storms yesterday might inhibit convection today.
The SPC warnings for today cover a vast area, but a closer look at some of the high-res models indicates a couple of areas of interest - one in the western TX panhandle between Canadian and Childress, the other back in SW Kansas around Garden City/Dodge City. Baring in mind that tomorrows activity looks like being in central/western OK, we've decided to take the southern route into TX. This area also looks like being the more tornadic option, and we've a taste for blood after yesrerday!
We're looking at going to Canadian TX first and have a look at see what's developing, then maybe head further south to Childress if things are bubbling up there.
More news later after repositioning.
View Larger Map
The SPC warnings for today cover a vast area, but a closer look at some of the high-res models indicates a couple of areas of interest - one in the western TX panhandle between Canadian and Childress, the other back in SW Kansas around Garden City/Dodge City. Baring in mind that tomorrows activity looks like being in central/western OK, we've decided to take the southern route into TX. This area also looks like being the more tornadic option, and we've a taste for blood after yesrerday!
We're looking at going to Canadian TX first and have a look at see what's developing, then maybe head further south to Childress if things are bubbling up there.
More news later after repositioning.
View Larger Map
Day 3 Chase Summary
Thunderstorms, Tornado
Amarillo TX, to Guymon OK, to Elkhart KS, to Richfield KS. Return to Guymon OK for overnight.
Our first chase, and we got up close and personal with a brief tornado on the ground...
We started off in Amarillo with the intention of driving up into the OK panhandle in order to position for activity later in the day in that area and southern Kansas.
After arriving in Guymon at lunchtime, we stopped for a review of the data. The skies were mostly clear, with not much convection in sight. Studying GRLevel enabled us to pick up on cells that were firing in New Mexico, but whilst these were heading in our direction they were a long way away.
Then we noticed a cell firing up in SE Colorado that looked like it was tracking eastward into the extreme SW Kansas, which was about an hour away from our location. Game on! We stowed the gear and headed off on our first intercept.
About 20 minutes into the drive we noticed a big anvil coming out of the haze to our ENE. We headed up into Kansas, tracking the storm on GRLevel in order to pick an intercept point. We headed up to Richfield KS, and parked up to take a look at the storm. By now it had grown considerably, but had split into two cells, which meant the activity was dimished as the cells robbed each other of valuable energy. It was also back-building to the SW. It was by now producing 1" hail, so we needed to make sure we were in a safe position to avoid the hail core.
Then we noticed a line of very rapidly building cells off to the north, heading toward Garden City KS. We made the mistake of abandoning our intercept cell and heading north to try and pick up on one of these new cells, as our storm seemed to be weaking after splitting. We soon realised that the drive would take too long to get to these northern storms, as their movement was taking them away from us, so we'd always be playing catch-up with them.
We headed back to Richfield, and decided to retrace our steps further east to intercept our original storm. We parked up (by a major gas pipeline - hmmmm) and watched as the southern cell of the split rolled in toward us. It seemed to really intensify before our eyes, and CC and CG lightning increased in frequency. The cloud structure was looking really crazy, and seemed to be building southwards over our location. Lots of movement in the clouds - always an interesting sign.
I was videoing an interesting disturbance in the cloud base to the north when I heard Neil shout somehting about a tornado on the ground! He was looking west - into relatively clear air - and sure enough there it was! Lots of debris being thrown up on the ground, and as I watched a debris vortex spun up toward the clouds above - absolutely incredible. The downside was that it was about a mile away, and was showing little sideways movement - always a bad sign, as this would indicate that the chances are that it is coming straight toward you. Discression took the better part of valour, and as the car was pointing in the direction of the twister we decided to get the hell out of Dodge!
Its tricky to make out as its a still from a video, so apologies for the quality. This image shows an arrow pointing to the vortex:
And this video shows what effect it had on us tornado virgins:
(Warning: contains very strong language! Lucy: not suitable for Emily - Daddy says "fluff" a lot)
We then headed south to get out from under the danger area. Then we noticed some more ground disturbance ahead on our right:
This disturbance dissapated quickly, and we drove on. Back in the OK panhandle, we then headed east, flanking the storm as we headed back toward Guymon where we spent the night. We saw some night lightning from cells rumbling away to our north east, but nothing came over us.
Roll on tomorrow!
Monday, 5 May 2008
Day 3 1st Chase
We're off and running heading up into the OK panhandle from TX as I type, having decided to chase in south west Kansas.
We're just about to cross over into OK from TX on the route below at 11.34am (17.54 BST)Currently the low cloud deck is breaking nicely, small small cumulus drifitng around. Temp is 26c. Back later when (hopefully) the action starts...
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We're just about to cross over into OK from TX on the route below at 11.34am (17.54 BST)Currently the low cloud deck is breaking nicely, small small cumulus drifitng around. Temp is 26c. Back later when (hopefully) the action starts...
View Larger Map
Sunday, 4 May 2008
Day 2 Update - Caught By The Fuzz!
En route to Amarillo (yes, that Amarillo) as I type, due in around 6pm local (Midnight BST). Chance of some elevated storms coming in off the high plains tonight, but the risk is very slight.
The main purpose is to reposition for the push north through OK into Kansas tomorrow, where the main chance of action looks likely in the afternoon. 7 hour drive - better get used to them!
The main incident of note en-route: we were pulled over by a Texas state trooper for speeding! The nice gentleman let us off with a friendly word of caution though. We love Texas...Neil has some surrupticiously taped video - check out his blog to see it later when he uploads.
Staying at the Big Texan tonight - a well renowned Texas stake house and motel. It serves a 72oz steak as the house speciality - and no, I'll not be having one thank-you, forgot the pepto-bismol and stomach pump.
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The main purpose is to reposition for the push north through OK into Kansas tomorrow, where the main chance of action looks likely in the afternoon. 7 hour drive - better get used to them!
The main incident of note en-route: we were pulled over by a Texas state trooper for speeding! The nice gentleman let us off with a friendly word of caution though. We love Texas...Neil has some surrupticiously taped video - check out his blog to see it later when he uploads.
Staying at the Big Texan tonight - a well renowned Texas stake house and motel. It serves a 72oz steak as the house speciality - and no, I'll not be having one thank-you, forgot the pepto-bismol and stomach pump.
View Larger Map
Day 2 - Repositioning
An early post, as jet lag finds me up and about at 6am. A good excuse to check the equipment and the latest forecast guidance.
Good call by Keith re the maps, so here's our current location:
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I'll update with a map after each relocation.
Today looks like being a repositioning day, with not too much in the way of severe weather to warrant an all-out chase. Some scattered storms possible in TX panhandle, which will probably tie in with our relocation plans.
Discussion to come over breakfast, will post later on what strategies materialise!
Good call by Keith re the maps, so here's our current location:
View Larger Map
I'll update with a map after each relocation.
Today looks like being a repositioning day, with not too much in the way of severe weather to warrant an all-out chase. Some scattered storms possible in TX panhandle, which will probably tie in with our relocation plans.
Discussion to come over breakfast, will post later on what strategies materialise!
Day 1 - Arrivals!
York to London, London to Dallas Fort Worth, Dallas Fort Worth to Lewisville - Best Western Hotel overnight.
The end of a long, long day!
An early start with many modes of transportation, but all went well and connections were made without any disasters. We're now at the Best Western in Lewisville, Texas - which is only just up the road from the airport.
A much needed couple of cold brews and a nice Mexican meal, and its early to bed to catch up on some sleep, and a long drive northward tomorrow. Things look quiet tomorrow, before the promise of some good activity on Monday onwards. This all looks like being in OK and KS, so we're on a repositioning drive tomorrow after checking the latest output in the morning.
The end of a long, long day!
An early start with many modes of transportation, but all went well and connections were made without any disasters. We're now at the Best Western in Lewisville, Texas - which is only just up the road from the airport.
A much needed couple of cold brews and a nice Mexican meal, and its early to bed to catch up on some sleep, and a long drive northward tomorrow. Things look quiet tomorrow, before the promise of some good activity on Monday onwards. This all looks like being in OK and KS, so we're on a repositioning drive tomorrow after checking the latest output in the morning.
Thursday, 1 May 2008
Super Models...
…or not, as the case may be!
2 days until departure, and all eyes are on the forecast models and their predictions for next week. It’s a frustrating business, because of the variability between each run that can raise or dash hopes. It’s often too easy to get hung up on each run, especially when the period in question is still a few days away.
What we can say at this point is that most models are pointing toward a quieter spell from Saturday through to Monday at the earliest, with high pressure over most of the Plains. What this means is that the potential for organised severe weather is reduced, as High Pressure will act like a lid on the convection from the surface. On the ground this will translate into lovely sunny weather, with temperatures for Dallas progged in the mid 20s – but we’re not there to enjoy the sunshine!
Things start to get more interesting from Tuesday/Wednesday onwards, as low pressure to the west of the Plains may move in, which should do two things – firstly help increase the moisture coming up from the Gulf of Mexico, and secondly help de-stabilise the atmosphere (remove that lid that was inhibiting the convection). This is still a long way out though, so there’s just no way of knowing where or even if things are likely to go “bang”.
Back to the packing…
2 days until departure, and all eyes are on the forecast models and their predictions for next week. It’s a frustrating business, because of the variability between each run that can raise or dash hopes. It’s often too easy to get hung up on each run, especially when the period in question is still a few days away.
What we can say at this point is that most models are pointing toward a quieter spell from Saturday through to Monday at the earliest, with high pressure over most of the Plains. What this means is that the potential for organised severe weather is reduced, as High Pressure will act like a lid on the convection from the surface. On the ground this will translate into lovely sunny weather, with temperatures for Dallas progged in the mid 20s – but we’re not there to enjoy the sunshine!
Things start to get more interesting from Tuesday/Wednesday onwards, as low pressure to the west of the Plains may move in, which should do two things – firstly help increase the moisture coming up from the Gulf of Mexico, and secondly help de-stabilise the atmosphere (remove that lid that was inhibiting the convection). This is still a long way out though, so there’s just no way of knowing where or even if things are likely to go “bang”.
Back to the packing…
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